The foreign exchange market and investors place greater interest in the provisions of the Fed in who the next head of the White House.
Prices of cars, vegetables and various other products would skyrocket for the average American.
It is time for a serious debate about the ideas of Trump, because he could be elected
Trump says that these measures would help “make America great again.” But most economists agree that would raise the price of various products for the average American from cars to lettuce in the grocery store-bought and would kill more American jobs of those who help to create.
Many Americans believe in his promises. Moreover, they consider that it would be a better president than Hillary Clinton on economic issues.
As recalled, Trump began his campaign focused on immigration reform that would include the construction of a wall between Mexico and the United States, funded by Mexico, and the deportation of 11 million undocumented immigrants in 18 months. Manpower necessary, essential as authoritative opinions. The income of the Muslims would be totally prohibited during a government Trump.
The trillion dollars then expressed by the number one followed by twelve zeros. The debt of the Federal government of the United States figure at US $ 19 billion. Trump is committed to pay in eight years, selling all NPAs in their country. Absolutely impossible, since US GDP in 2016 to loom to USD 18 billion.
Trump raises to withdraw US troops from South Korea and Japan and authorize them to build their own atomic weapons, without remembering that the policy of his country for 70 years has been to avoid the proliferation of such weapons. Deprecated the Nato alliance to defend Europe. He said that if he was forced to throw atomic bombs, throw.
It proposes the tax to 45% for imports from countries like China and Mexico to force return to the US companies that once left the country of Uncle Sam in search of cheap labor. does not like free markets in order to keep jobs in the US
Promises to replace the health system, Obamacare, for a system where individuals ensure health with a private company and the government diminish their share of taxes in return. Proyecta reauthorize the torture method that simulates drowning have to confess those who believe or suspect have valuable information for the security of the United States.
For Colombia, a government Trump would surely be more aggressive against the FARC, the ELN and the Bacrim, a government of Hillary Clinton. But everything else would be fatal. Bitter reality. When writing these lines authorized commentators believe that Donald Trump has already reached the necessary votes to be the Republican candidate. Neither Trump, nor Mrs. Clinton arouse much enthusiasm among their parties, why a low vote, voting would favour the triumph of Trump is expected.
Now that Hillary Clinton is convalescing, the currency market begins to stir. Bulletins about the Democratic candidate help investors shake his apparent indifference on the US presidential elections and forces them to at least face the possibility that his opponent, the rebel Donald Trump, has no chance of winning.
The Republican candidate was so behind in the polls that the market barely acknowledged that the elections are now less than two months. The volatility of the exchange rate is low, investors are much more interested in what the Federal Reserve can make about who will come to the White House.
No one suggests that pneumonia could force Clinton to withdraw from the contest, but revelation comes at a time when the difference in the polls began to shrink.
Clinton is still the favourite to win, says Tina Fordham, senior Citigroup political analyst, but like the brexit , the possibility of a presidency Trump is more than an unforeseen risk, and perhaps new investors “fell into a false sense of complacency. “
Kit Juckes, a macro strategist at Societe Generale, the difference in surveys points is reduced in a context of a nervous market. “Hillary Clinton has the ability to increase nervousness before the election,” he says.
Although one thing to talk about a victory Trump, something very different is to contemplate what it may mean for the dollar. For now, the only part in the forex universe that consistently responds to the phenomenon Trump is the Mexican peso.
It is not a surprise, given the threats posed by their Mexican trade policies. The fate of Trump in the polls has an inverse relationship to weight. “This can be extended to a wider group of sensitive commercial coins,” says Juckes.
The peso fell nearly 8 percent against the dollar in the past six months, making it the currency of emerging markets with the worst performance.
The currency volatility may increase and the currencies of emerging markets will become more vulnerable if Trump advances in the polls, says Steve Englander, currency strategist at Citi. In fact, Rabobank analysts attributed the sharp falls in the exchange rates of emerging markets Monday’s disease Clinton and his decision to cancel his campaign trips.
As the market begins to pay attention to the election, investors will worry about the range of possibilities that exist if the Republican wins. Trumps populism can weaken the dollar and increase the risk of a currency war, and the uncertainty of his presidency affect global capital.
The US currency tends to react more favourably to the Democrats in the White House to Republicans, according to SocGen.
There are exceptions. In the first term of Ronald Reagan, the dollar rose when Paul Volcker, then chairman of the Fed raised interest rates to tackle inflation. In the early years of the presidency of Barack Obama, the dollar fell when the Fed launched the monetary expansion in an effort to prevent the economy is depressed.
Still, the dollar should increase its value if Clinton wins the November 8, even if it faces a divided opposition or full Congress, suggests the historical analysis of SocGen.