Racing Junky

The Nascar season has finally arrived as our teams arrive in Daytona to vist the Daytona International Speedway for the 1st race of the year there, the Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon. Qualifying here is actually pretty significant as you will see later in the report in the qualifying section. The Daytona 500 of course is at the Daytona International Speedway, where if you look at statistics, it seems like this is a track that every driver has fluked one good finish there in their career. A couple guys from DEI once owned this track but recently Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch and even Jamie McMurray have joined the winners circle to break that DEI dominance. This is a restrictor plate track where speeds are controlled by restricting air flow into the carburetors and that, in turn, causes the cars to bunch up and then you see a lot of pack racing, sometimes 3 and 4 wide at times. With the use of the COT cars, you will see a lot of side by side, two-wide racing cause these cars do not side draft all that well but you will see a lot of drivers saving cars when they start to go sideways, because of the wider body and the wing. Statistics this week will show you that there are some drivers that have enjoyed a great deal of success and are very consistent at Daytona and one of them will emerge as our favorite. Remember however that the one huge thing that restrictor plate racing has going for it; that at anytime the big one can take out all of our favorites with just one bad move by any driver at 200 mph. With that said, lets grab hold of your seat, Daytona will hit you like never before and lets take a look at this weeks race at the Daytona International Speedway.

The Daytona Track is a 2.5 mile Super Speedway and this event will cover 200 laps around this track or 500 miles. The drivers will start rolling to the start finish line at the tri-oval which is banked at 18 degrees. They will start picking up speed on the 1900 foot front stretch and enter turn one, which is banked at 31degrees for 3000 feet. As they come out of turn two, they enter the 3000 foot backstretch which has minimal banking. Here the cars speeds should be approaching 200 miles per hour. As they enter turn three, they again enter banking that is 31 degrees for 3000 feet. Pedal to the metal from here on out barring a caution flag or pitting. As they come out of turn four, they enter the front stretch which again is banked at 18 degrees coming to the tri-oval and the start finish line. The track surface is rough in spots and the track is 40 feet wide with a 12 to 30 foot apron. There is lots of two and three wide racing here and normal in packs of cars that are picking up speed by drafting. Qualifying speeds are typically in the low 190's while the track record for race speed is 173 miles per hour. Drivers entering pit road have a challenge to slow considerably in traffic and get down the track for entry into a pit road that is 50 feet wide and 1600 feet long. Pit Road speed is 55 miles per hour. While is a very fast track, it is one that offers a great challenge to drivers to negotiate the track by drafting with other cars and for crew chiefs to get the car set up properly during qualifying and during the race.

You wouldn't think that qualifying in the Top 15 would make any difference at a track like Daytona, but statistics there will make you think differently. A Top 15 qualifying effort seems to be the place to start if your going to win at Daytona. In looking back at the history of all the races at Daytona, there has just been two provisional winners, one of them took place last year in the Daytona 500 when Matt Kenseth won the race from 43rd. Chances are Kenseth would not have even come close to winning that race however had it not been called for rain just past the mid-way point of that race. In the 125 races at Daytona, the race has been won just six times from further back then 30th and only eight (8) races has the winner qualified outside the Top 20. The strange thing is two of those races took place in 2008 when McMurray won from the 15th spot and Harvick pulled off a win after starting 34th and in the first race last year, Matt Kenseth won the race from the 43rd starting spot. In the 125 races, 68 of them have been won from within the Top 5 or 54%. Twenty Four (24) of those were from the pole and fourty three were from the front row. About 80% of the winners have started in the Top 10 as Tony Stewart did last year when he won the Coke Zero 400 from the pole. So it seems that a good qualifying run is necessary to win at this track and a Top 15 effort seems critical. In the history of this track, over 91% of the winners have started some where in the Top 15. The average starting position of the race winner in the last ten (10) races is 13.60 and has only been won from outside the Top 15 in just two of those races. Taking the pole has had nearly all good times too as eight (8) times the pole winner has finished in the Top 15 and the pole winners average finishing position is 11.90. Normally at Daytona, if you qualify in the Top 15, know how to draft, race hard to the finish line and you might just have a good day at Daytona.

Races won from starting pos 1: 24 [of 125 races]	Races won from starting pos 10: 1	Races won from starting pos 32: 1
Races won from starting pos 2: 19	Races won from starting pos 11: 2	Races won from starting pos 33: 1
Races won from starting pos 3: 11	Races won from starting pos 12: 4	Races won from starting pos 34: 1
Races won from starting pos 4: 11	Races won from starting pos 13: 3	Races won from starting pos 38, 43: 2
Races won from starting pos 5: 3	Races won from starting pos 14: 1	Races won from the top 5: 68 of 125 [54.40%]
Races won from starting pos 6: 7	Races won from starting pos 15: 5	Races won from the top 10: 99 of 125 [79.20%]
Races won from starting pos 7: 7	Races won from starting pos 19: 4	Races won from the top 15: 114 of 125 [91.20%]
Races won from starting pos 8: 6	Races won from starting pos 21: 1
Races won from starting pos 9: 10	Races won from starting pos 30: 1

The answer to this question this week is YES ! Of course, horsepower is important at every racetrack, it will be the one of the main key's to winning Saturday. The first key to winning Sunday is as we already know, is a good qualifying effort because that seems critical to a good finish at Daytona. The 2nd key is that you must have a car that is sound aerodynamically and have a great engine package. The 3rd and perhaps the most important key is that the driver must have and know good drafting practices. He must have a 6th sense on who to follow and who to avoid in attempting to draft to the front. Of course a good handling car is important also and the use of the COT cars should not change that fact. Racing here seems to be two to three wide and after a few laps of racing, several cars will begin to break away from the pack in a single file. Cars behind the break away must draft back to the lead pack in order to gain distance and time. Lose the draft at any point or lose a lap and you may as well hang it up for the day. Pit strategy especially late in the race could come into play, such as variables like taking 2 tires or no tires to improve track position and even fuel mileage could figure into this race. This race will be won by the driver who has great engine package, knows how to draft, has qualified in the Top 15 and a pit crew that is consistently good on pit stops with no errors. Of course the biggest factor....avoid the "BIG ONE."

There has been only one repeat winner here in the past 10 races at Daytona: Tony Stewart has won three races in the last 10 races. Stewart has to be a rock solid favorite Sunday, while Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson also have to figure prominently in the mix. Other race winners here have included Jamie McMurray, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth. Chances of a first time winner this year at Daytona I believe will come Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, Brian Vickers or Clint Bowyer. Throw Martin Truex Jr, Mark Martin, Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle into that bunch as having outside shots. The winner will more then likely come from this group of drivers and I don't believe that we will see any surprise winners in this race unless of course we have a race called by rain once again.

Of course there is still a testing ban in the Sprint Cup Series, so there is no testing data available to the teams. However, it has been said that the drivers that participated in the Budweiser shootout have a edge over drivers that did not participate in the race. So I have included the results of the practices and the results of the race in this weeks report.

I am not going into a lot of detail here this week because in one word, Ford seems to dominate victory lane at this track in the spring race while Chevrolet has controlled the summer race at Daytona. From statistics, you can draw a conclusion that Chevrolet enjoys a slight advantage over Ford, Dodge and Toyota here based on Top 5 and Top 10 finishes. Many of their drivers are great on this type of track and at Daytona and they have one of the best at this track, Tony Stewart, in their stable. They have won 6 of the last 10 races and have dominated the Top 5 in a lot of those races. Interestingly however, the four wins by the other manufacturers all came in the last three races and were spread between Ford with two, Dodge and Toyota. The Top 10 are more evenly distributed but again Chevrolet has a slight edge over the other manufacturers. So Sunday, the race will more then likely come down to a Chevrolet or Ford having pretty great odds of reaching victory lane, with Toyota having a good chance to reach it and Dodge having just a slight chance to be there despite the fact that some Dodge drivers are doing much better with the new engine packages from last year. The super teams that I mentioned earlier that have had good programs so far this year will have the edge here on Sunday.

2009 Cumulative Season Results Through Race 36
Car	Cars	% Car	Races	Win	Top	Top	Laps	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Base
Make	Entered	Make	Won	%	5%	10%	Run %	Start %	to Finish	Pts/Race
Chevrolet	540	34.88	18	50	50	50	94.65	30.56	0.6	109.65
Dodge	285	18.41	4	11.11	11.67	14.72	85.53	19.3	-0.5	92.44
Ford	281	18.15	3	8.33	14.44	14.17	93.65	18.51	2.2	99.7
Toyota	442	28.55	11	30.56	23.89	21.11	77.7	19.91	-1.8	88.31
2008-2009 Super Speedway Results
Car	Cars	% Car	Races	Win	Top	Top	Laps	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Base
Make	Entered	Make	Won	%	5%	10%	Run %	Start %	to Finish	Pts/Race
Chevrolet	543	35.08	11	30.56	37.78	40	94.31	32.04	-0.7	103.41
Dodge	341	22.03	6	16.67	12.78	15.28	90.95	16.72	-0.2	90.21
Ford	285	18.41	10	27.78	25.56	23.61	92.47	19.3	2.4	105.02
Toyota	379	24.48	9	25	23.89	21.11	87.1	19.53	-0.6	93.75
2007-2009 Daytona International Speedway Results
Car	Cars	% Car	Races	Win	Top	Top	Laps	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Base
Make	Entered	Make	Won	%	5%	10%	Run %	Start %	to Finish	Pts/Race
Chevrolet	101	39.15	2	33.33	33.33	33.33	91.23	32.67	-3.3	97.47
Dodge	57	22.09	1	16.67	26.67	31.67	92.61	12.28	5.3	103.63
Ford	51	19.77	2	33.33	26.67	23.33	91.77	19.61	1.5	104.24
Toyota	49	18.99	1	16.67	13.33	11.67	84.43	20.41	-0.8	90.69

We really don't have any real dominant teams at Daytona as Stewart-Hass Racing, Roush Racing, Gibbs Racing and Penski Racing all have recorded wins in the last two year. Roush Racing has recorded the most Top 5 finishes, followed by Gibbs and Penski. Roush racing also holds the best Top 10 and Top 20 averages with Petty Motorsports being a surprising second in both those categories. Surprisingly Hendrick Motorsports has been lagging behind in the last two years at Daytona but Tony Stewart driving Hendrick equipment has pulled out a win. They have wn a couple of races in the last 10 and Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr all have won here during their careers. In the last ten races, Roush Racing has two wins with Jamie McMurray surprising everyone with a win in 2007 while Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500 last year in a controversial finish when the race was called for rain just after the half way point. Kenseth had started the race in 43rd of last on the starting grid. Kevin Harvick won the Daytona 500 race in 2007 for RCR Racing in a controversial finish over Mark Martin. Kyle Busch won the Coke Zero 400 for Gibbs in 2008 Of the major teams, Hendrick holds a slight edge over DEI in Top 5s in the last 10 races, however the other guys, not driving for major teams also have a lot of Top 5's. The other guys have a big edge in Top 10's as the best the Big guys could put up is by Roush Racing with Hendrick Racing right there also. Of all the major teams Roush, Gibbs, Penske and Hendrick Racing have done pretty well in the Top 10 category, with DEI not too far behind. Overall however, with the exception of wins by Hendrick and Gibbs, all the major teams look pretty even across the board. If you look at the chart below however all those trends have been changing if we just use the COT statistics. So then who are the dominant drivers for teams...well, Dale Earnhardt Jr for Hendrick has won here multiple times, Jeff Gordon has won 2 races and Jimmie Johnson has a win for Hendrick also. Tony Stewart with Stewart-Hass Racing has won three while his teammate, Ryan Newman also has a win under his belt. Kyle Busch got Gibbs back on the board with a win in 2008 while Kenseth put Roush there last year. Based on stats I would look for the winner to come from these major teams, with the edge going to a Hendrick, Roush, Gibbs or Stewart-Hass car. There maybe a couple of drivers on teams racing outside the major teams will fluke in a Top 10 somewhere along the line.

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5's	Top 10's	Top 20's	Led	Bonus	High	Low	DNF	Avg Finish
1	JTG Daugherty Racing	2	20.50	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	6	17	0	11.50
2	Petty Motorsports	13	25.00	0	0	2	7	10	25	10	3	39	0	14.92
3	Stewart-Haas Racing	4	12.30	0	1	1	2	3	102	20	1	36	0	16.25
4	R Gordon Motorsports	4	32.00	0	0	0	2	2	2	10	6	34	0	17.50
5	Roush Fenway Racing	20	22.60	0	1	5	8	14	19	25	1	43	2	17.70
6	Earnhardt Ganassi Racing	5	11.20	1	0	0	1	3	1	5	9	30	0	17.80
7	Joe Gibbs Racing	12	11.10	0	1	4	4	8	323	50	1	43	2	18.08
8	Petty Enterprises	4	28.80	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11	34	0	18.50
9	Richard Childress Racing	14	23.40	0	0	2	3	8	15	15	2	37	1	18.79
10	Penske Racing	12	25.50	0	1	4	5	6	18	15	1	36	0	19.50
11	Dale Earnhardt Inc.	8	16.60	1	0	0	1	4	19	5	10	37	0	22.00
12	Hall of Fame Racing	3	25.70	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	21	25	0	22.67
13	Michael Waltrip Racing	10	24.60	0	0	0	1	4	4	10	7	37	0	22.80
14	Haas CNC Racing	3	21.70	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	28	0	24.00
15	Hendrick Motorsports	16	9.80	1	0	1	3	5	136	55	2	39	3	24.94
16	Team Red Bull	7	23.10	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	7	42	2	25.29
17	Chip Ganassi Racing	5	26.00	0	0	1	1	1	5	5	5	38	0	26.00
18	Furniture Row Racing	5	29.40	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12	43	1	27.00
19	Wood Brothers Racing	2	31.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23	33	0	28.00
20	Bill Davis Racing	2	23.00	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	19	38	1	28.50
21	Front Row Motorsports	4	34.00	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	19	40	0	29.00
22	Phoenix Racing	2	27.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	41	1	32.50
23	Yates Racing	7	27.60	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23	42	2	33.14
24	Tommy Baldwin Racing	2	29.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	25	42	1	33.50
25	Prism Motorsports	2	41.50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24	43	1	33.50
26	No Fear Racing	1	7.00	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	35	35	1	35.00
27	Mayfield Motorsports	1	18.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	40	40	0	40.00
28	TRG Motorsports	1	38.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	40	40	1	40.00
29	NEMCO Motorsports	1	39.00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	41	41	1	41.00

We can see by looking at the Top 10 drivers in all the races run here, that these drivers have a good understanding of the track characteristics and what it takes to get to the front here. You would have to label Tony Stewart as the King of Daytona since he has won three races in the last 10 here. Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr do exceptionally well at this track but have been victims of some tough luck here the last few races as you can see that neither show up in the Top 10 lists. Other guys who are in the Top 10 here to keep an eye on is Kevin Harvick, who runs this track well, won the Daytona 500 in 2007 and won the Bud Shootout this year. Kyle Busch has been running this track exceptional well but is reckless on the track while brother Kurt seems to always be in the mix at the end. Kasey Kahne has a decent record here as does Clint Bowyer. Look for Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Marcos Ambrose, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, David Ragan, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick all to be in the hunt on Saturday.

Below is the Top 10 averages of all active drivers that have raced in the last 5 races at Daytona

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
1	Kurt Busch	5	22.40	0	0	4	5	4.80
2	Carl Edwards	5	12.60	0	0	3	3	9.40
3	Matt Kenseth	5	19.80	0	1	2	4	11.20
4	Marcos Ambrose	2	20.50	0	0	0	1	11.50
5	Kyle Busch	5	11.20	0	1	3	3	12.40
6	Kasey Kahne	5	21.20	0	0	0	3	13.40
7	Tony Stewart	5	7.00	0	1	2	3	14.00
8	Clint Bowyer	5	21.00	0	0	1	3	14.60
9	David Ragan	5	21.60	0	0	1	2	15.60
10	Robby Gordon	5	30.60	0	0	0	2	17.00

Below is the Top 10 averages of all active drivers that have raced in the last 10 races at Daytona

Rank	Driver	Races	Avg Start	Poles	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Finish
1	Marcos Ambrose	2	20.50	0	0	0	1	11.50
2	Tony Stewart	10	6.00	1	3	5	7	12.70
3	Clint Bowyer	8	22.88	0	0	1	5	13.38
4	David Ragan	6	23.83	0	0	2	3	13.83
5	Elliott Sadler	10	23.90	0	0	2	6	14.10
6	Kurt Busch	10	18.60	0	0	6	7	14.50
7	Kasey Kahne	10	25.50	0	0	0	4	14.80
8	Matt Kenseth	10	18.20	0	1	3	6	15.40
9	Kevin Harvick	10	22.80	0	1	2	3	16.40
10	Robby Gordon	9	27.56	0	0	0	2	17.00

The Daytona 500 is going to come down to a group of eight drivers I believe and some of those really jump out as solid favorites. ( Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart ). I would suggest that you pick one of them to win the race on Sunday. To pick the winner out of this group will be your challenge, as each of the Top 10 here will contend at some point I believe. I have to like Tony Stewart based on his recent performances on plate tracks, he has a great team that is highly motivated and he is driving Hendrick equipment, that proved to be very fast in qualifying. I would suggest you pick most of the multi-car organizations that have a group of experienced drivers that are historically good at this track for finishes in the Top 15 on Sunday. There are only 10 or so drivers that have a super record what so ever at this track. Having watched him at this track and knowing Hendrick cars have the power, I am going with Tony Stewart to win and will go with Kurt Busch as the dark horse this week. It should be a big weekend for the Hendrick built cars and perhaps the Roush and Penski crowd as well. The rest of the Top 15 are based on statistical averages and their records here at Daytona....that should be a fairly accurate barometer for you to make selections.

1. Tony Stewart - Stewart has been the king of Daytona in the last 5 years, winning three times in the last 10 races and always runs well at the track if he isn't winning races. Throw in the fact that he is driving Hendrick equipment and you have to label him as the favorite when you throw in all the known facts. He has the best overall record of all drivers with more then a few races under their belts. He is one of only two drivers that have finished in the Top 5 in 50% of more of his races at Daytona.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 12.70. Rank 2nd........Daytona Driver Ranking - 108.2 - 1st

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 43rd, 38th, 3rd, 20th, 8th and 1st ( 18.83 Average Finish )

2. Kurt Busch - Busch is one of the best there is at this track, with Stewart and himself having the best overall records. He is about as consistent at this track as you can get as in the last 10 races, he has 6 Top 5 finishes to go along with 7 Top 10 finishes. Penski cars have a good record at Daytona over the years and the only question mark with this team is that it has a new crew chief on the pit box. If he is in the right line at the right time, he could very well come away the winner on Sunday. He was very fast in practice.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 14.50. Rank 6th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 95.3 - 5th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 41st, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 10th and 5th ( 10.83 Average Finish )

3. Jeff Gordon - Gordon should lead a host of Hendrick cars in the Top 10 on Sunday and look for him to hook up with Stewart or Johnson as the race starts drawing to a close. Gordon has won a lot of races at Daytona, including two in the last 11 races. In the last 10 races, he has cracked the Top 5 just twice and the Top 10 four times but that is not an indication of how many times he was leading this race late. Barring an accident or engine failure, I see him finishing in the Top 5.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 19.90. Rank 19th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 91.9 - 6th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 10th, 5th, 39th, 30th, 13th and 28th ( 20.83 Average Finish )

4. Carl Edwards - Edwards and the Ford crowd looked pretty good in the Bud Shootout and word in the garage is that the new Ford engine should bring them a lot more wins this year then they had last year. Edwards runs the plate tracks pretty well and who can forget him leading that race coming to the finish line at Talladega, only to go airborne after contact. At Daytona in the last 10 races, he has three Top 5 finishes under his belt which were his only finishes in the Top 10. He will need some drafting help if he has any chance in this one.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 19.70. Rank 18th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 83.1 - 12th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 23rd, 4th, 19th, 2nd, 18th and 4th ( 11.67 Average Finish )

5. Kevin Harvick - One of the guys that has to be excited to get this season under way as a way to put last year behind him. RCR made a lot of changes in the engineering dept and that at least resulted in much improved performance in the final races of last year. This year is already off to a good start as he came away the winner in the Bud Shootout. In the last 10 races, Harvick has a win, two Top 5's and just three Top 10's. Look for Harvick to be extremely competitive Sunday and if the breaks go his way, who knows what could happen.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 16.40. Rank 9th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 81.5 - 14th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 1st, 34th, 14th, 12th, 2nd and 26th ( 14.83 Average Finish )

6. Jimmie Johnson - Well what can you say, Mr.Sprint Cup Champion is gunning for his 5th straight championship..something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. Johnson and Knaus are simply the best driver-Crew chief combo in the series, bar none. They have the best equipment in the series and the total team performance is unsurpassed. He hasn't always finished well at Daytona, but he always runs well enough to stay up front. In the last 10 races, he has a win, three Top 5's and five Top 10's. Never, never bet against this guy because he will beat you down.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 17.60. Rank 11th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 94.3 - 4th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 39th, 10th, 27th, 23rd, 31st and 2nd ( 22.00 Average Finish )

7. Kyle Busch - Well Rowdy needs to make amends for not making the Chase last year after having a lousy 2nd half of the season. Now he has a long term contract, a new crew chief to go along with some great equipment so he has everything in place to make a serious run at the Championship this year. My knock on him on plate tracks is he takes too many huge risks and they have come back to bite him and a lot of others, all too often. In the last 10 races, Busch has a win and four Top 5's in his four Top 10 finishes. Run good or wreck will be his day Sunday.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 18.00. Rank 13th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 101.0 - 2nd

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 24th, 2nd, 4th, 1st, 41st and 14th ( 14.33 Average Finish )

8. Kasey Kahne - Kahne had a good season last year although it was a quiet one. The new engine package in his cars changed his entire season so he will be starting this season out with everything in place. Kahne has been good on the plate tracks and never forces the issue so he can finish these races out in pretty good shape. In the last 10 races at Daytona, Kahne has four Top 10 finishes but has a Top 10 average there. I think he could surprise us but I am not seeing a win unless someone pushes him there which I dont think is likely.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 14.80. Rank 7th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 79.4 - 18th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 7th, 9th, 7th, 7th, 29th and 15th ( 12.33 Average Finish )

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - This will be a huge race for Jr as we all know what is at stake with this season, it would be nice to get it off to a good start and Daytona would be the place to do it. He was the fastest car in the first practice so we know he has the horses under the hood. He is generally good at plate tracks. In the last 10 races at Daytona, he has a pair of Top 5 finishes and five Top 10 finishes. If he can hook up with another Hendrick car at the end of the race, he could very well come away the race winner.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 17.80. Rank 12th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 87.3 - 7th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 32nd, 36th, 9th, 8th, 27th and 39th ( 25.17 Average Finish )

10. Jeff Burton - Burton certainly underachieved last year and has to redeem himself this year. As with Harvick, Burton's team started coming around at the end of last year so there will be high expectations coming into this season. We know he has the talent and the experience to get the job done at Daytona, he just needs the right things to take place. In the last 10 races at Daytona, Burton has just one top 10 finish but at least that one was a top 5 finish. It should be interesting to see how he does this week.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 20.00. Rank 21st........Daytona Driver Ranking - 83.5 - 10th

Finishing Position Last 6 Races : 3rd, 16th, 13th, 37th, 28th and 16th ( 18.83 Average Finish )

11. Matt Kenseth - Well he did win the Daytona 500 last year from last place, proof that the fastest car does not always win the race. Having it rain helps a lot at times. Kenseth won the first two races last year then disappeared after that. Maybe the new Ford engine will get him back in the mix. Kenseth has a great record in last ten, that win, three Top 5's and six Top 10's.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 15.40. Rank 8th........Daytona Driver Ranking - 96.1 - 3rd

12. Clint Bowyer - The other RCR guy who is looking to turn things around himself this year and hopefully RCR has gotten all the bugs out that plagued them for most of the season last year. He has been great here in his eight career races, with a Top 5 and five Top 10 finishes which is simply outstanding. Bowyer could be our biggest surprise of the day on Sunday

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 13.38. Rank 3rd.......Daytona Driver Ranking - 84.6 - 9th

13. Ryan Newman - Newman hopes that some changes made in his organization will help him achieve like he did in his sophomore season. I am not sure why he doesn't win more cause I know he has the talent and now I know he has Hendrick equipment. In his last 10 races at Daytona, Newman has a win and a pair of two Top 5 finishes.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 19.30. Rank 17th.......Daytona Driver Ranking - 85.9 - 8th

14. Elliott Sadler - This guy always jumps up and bites me whenever I don't pick him on a plate track...everytime I swear. So I am picking him for a Top 15 finish this weekend. He has always been one of the better drivers on the plate tracks and here at Daytona in the last 10 races, he has a pair of Top 5 finishes to go along with six Top 10 finishes.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 14.10. Rank 5th.......Daytona Driver Ranking - 78.9 - 19th

15. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is a big question mark for me cause most picked him to challenge Johnson for the Championship this year, but a leg injury may just put all that in question. While he says it won't affect him, I am not so sure so we will see. In his last 10 races at Daytona, he has just one Top 5 in his 8 career races here.

Last 10 races at Daytona, average finish 23.75. Rank 31st.......Daytona Driver Ranking - 83.2 - 11th

Others to Watch : Jamie McMurray, Greg Biffle, David Reutimann, Brian Vickers and Robby Gordon

There you have it, all the information that we can give you for the Daytona 500 this weekend at the Daytona International Speedway. With the history you have here, it is an advantage to you knowing that some of these teams can never seem to find the Top 15. Go with the percentages and with the drivers you know that are good on this track. Go with drivers from the larger multi-car operations that have great power plants, had great records in the COT cars and are Chevrolet's, Ford's or Toyota's. Give Dodge's a slight chance at this track. If your looking for a winner, I would first go with a Chevrolet driver from Stewart-Haas, Childress or Hendrick, a Ford driver from Roush, a Dodge driver from Petty-Evernham or Penske or a Toyota from Gibbs. I think the race winner will come from one of these six teams. The Swami is going with Tony Stewart for the win and Kurt Busch as the alternate winner. The final selection will be up to you but these are some general notes on the race, drivers and past history that may help you make intelligent picks this week. Listed below are the rest of the reports that you can use to make your selections for the race this week.

THE SWAMI'S 2010 NASCAR FANTASY REPORTS